A Few Thoughts About the Election

Well now that the Dem ticket is set, voters will start solidifying their choices. Slate has a great grass-roots type piece that examines the voting situation in Tennessee.

The political energy of the state is in Middle Tennessee, particularly the "ring" of suburban counties around Nashville. I drive 15 miles south of Nashville to Williamson County, the ground zero of Tennessee's—and the GOP's—boom. Twenty-five years ago, Williamson County was rural and Democratic. But Nashville white-collar workers moved out there. Country music and health care created a cadre of rich suburbanites. Williamson County's population quadrupled from 34,000 in 1970 to 126,000 in 2000. Now it has topped 140,000. The county adds two schools a year. A massive mall, the Cool Springs Galleria, gushes sales tax revenue, allowing Williamson to repeatedly cut taxes. Real estate dealers fill developments—like "Fountainhead" and "The Manor at Steeplechase"—as fast as they can be built. Country stars such as Brooks & Dunn and Tim McGraw have moved in. NASCAR stud Darrell Waltrip is in Williamson as well.*

"This is Eden," says county GOP chairman Hugh DuPree with a big grin. "It is not a big city, but it has all the amenities of a big city. There are no slums, no inner city. And we have the best schools in the state." In Williamson, DuPree says, people hate taxes and favor the war. It's the kind of place where you don't make plans for Wednesday evening because that's church night.

The county's new residents—white, prosperous, religious, and economically conservative—are quintessential Republicans. When USA Today was looking to profile the ideal Republican community in 2002, it came to Williamson County.

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"It's not a question of whether President Bush will win here, it's by how much," he says. "In 2000, Bush won the state by 80,000 thousand votes. This county—just one of 95 counties—provided a quarter of that margin. He won here by 20,000 votes."

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I do find an undecided voter in Williamson County—the only one of three dozen Tennesseans I accost who hasn't made up his mind. He is Tom Taylor. I meet him on Main Street in Franklin, right outside his law office. Taylor is a moderate Republican, he says. He voted for Bush, in part out of disgust for Clinton. "But now I am really disappointed." Bush has dragged the party too far right, has governed poorly. Taylor is pessimistic about the country. Still, he says, "if there is any light at the end of the tunnel, if—let's say—there is any sign someone is listening to Colin Powell, then I will vote Republican. You see, there just isn't anything to like about John Kerry."

Good point - there isn't much to like about Kerry if you are a Tennessee voter. He's not Southern, he's not protestant, he's not conservative. So the question is... did the Kerry campaign pick Edwards because they realized that Kerry is a foreigner to much of the country? If they did, will he make a difference? And how the hell did Edwards not win the nomination himself? I still think an Edwards Dean ticket would have easily beaten Bush.

Last point - my opinion, people don't vote on issues or voting record. They vote for the guy (or gal) that they LIKE - if you have a likable candidate it doesn't matter what he says or how he's voted (or what grades he made at Yale). Bush is the kind of guy that lots of American voters like. I don't think Kerry is.